Publikationsserver
Do FOMC Members Herd?
Twice a year FOMC members submit forecasts for growth, unemplyoment and inflation to be published in the Humphrey-Hawkins Report to Congress. In this paper we use individual FOMC forecasts to assess whether these forecasts exhibit herding behavior, a pattern often found in private sector forecasts....
Saved in:
| Published in: | MAGKS - Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics (Band 32-2010) |
|---|---|
| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Work |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Philipps-Universität Marburg
2023
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | PDF Full Text |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Summary: | Twice a year FOMC members submit forecasts for growth, unemplyoment and inflation to be published in the Humphrey-Hawkins Report to Congress. In this paper we use individual FOMC forecasts to assess whether these forecasts exhibit herding behavior, a pattern often found in private sector forecasts. While growth and unemployment forecast do not show herding behavior, the inflation forecasts show strong evidence of anti-herding, i.e. FOMC members intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus. Interestingly, anti-herding is more important for nonvoting members than for voters. |
|---|---|
| Physical Description: | 10 Pages |
| ISSN: | 1867-3678 |
| DOI: | 10.17192/es2024.0062 |