Canadian Interest Rate Setting: The Information Content of Canadian and U.S. Central Bank Communication

Canadian Interest Rate Setting: The Information Content of Canadian and U.S. Central Bank Communication

We explain Canadian target rate decisions using macroeconomic variables as well as Bank of Canada (BOC) and Federal Reserve (Fed) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to explain and predict 60 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We fi...

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Veröffentlicht in:MAGKS - Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics (Band 35-2009)
Autoren: Hayo, Bernd, Neuenkirch, Matthias
Format: Artikel
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Philipps-Universität Marburg 2009
Schlagworte:
Bank of Canada
Ordered Probit Model
Federal Reserve Bank
Wirtschaft
Interest Rate Decision
Taylor Rule
Monetary Policy
Central Bank Communication
Economics
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Zusammenfassung:We explain Canadian target rate decisions using macroeconomic variables as well as Bank of Canada (BOC) and Federal Reserve (Fed) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to explain and predict 60 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find that communications, and most especially speeches and testimony by Canadian Governing Council members, provide a significant and robust explanation of Canadian target rate decisions. However, prior to the introduction of fixed announcement dates, Canadian communications contained more information on upcoming policy moves. Finally, communications by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank—which are much more frequent—outperform our Canadian communication indicators in explaining Canadian interest rate decisions.
Umfang:25 Seiten
ISSN:1867-3678
DOI:10.17192/es2024.0016

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