Die zukünftige demographische Alterung und das Problem der Altersversorgung in China unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Metropole Shanghai und der Provinz Gansu

The main purpose of this dissertation is to show the process of future population aging in China and to analyze the problems that China will face in the coming decades to support the elderly. A rapid aging process and a large quantity of the elderly population as well as a great share of the elderly in the total population are the three most important characteristics of population aging in China. The baby-boom in 1950s and 1960s and the rapid decline in fertility as a result of the implementation of the family planning policy, especially of the one-child policy, since the end of the 1970s are contributing to the rapid aging of population in China. The decrease of mortality and increase of life expectancy help the process of population aging which is characterized by temporal and spatial imbalances among regions as well as between cities and villages. The rapid population aging in China will lead to significant difficulties in supporting its large quantity of elderly people. Traditionally the family is the main supporter of the elderly. After the Chinese Communist Party came to power the work units in cities and the collectives in the rural areas mainly supported the elderly. Since the economic reform und the opening policy towards the West China witnesses great economic and social developments which change the condition of old age support once again. The government, especially the state-owned enterprises in cities and the collectives in rural areas, lessen their role in social security. The dependency of the elderly on themselves und their family increases. But the function of families to support the elderly is weakening because of the decline of family size as a result of family planning policy, the now common separation of the households of married adult children and their parents as well as the increasing mobility and work pressure on the middle generation. Given an economic level as a developing country the Chinese government can only supply the elderly with limited support. Therefore, the state, family and the elderly themselves must work together to solve the problems of old age support. The dissertation aims at developing a framework to methodologically analyze the problems of an aging population in China. The future trends and the problems of old age support in China are the result of demographic, economic and social developments. Future problems of old age support can be predicted through observation of the development in old age support, an analysis of the factors behind this development as well as their possible development.