Information or Uncertainty Shocks?

This paper shows that uncertainty has an impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy shocks. As uncertainty increases, so does the risk that a restrictive forward guidance shock will increase rather than decrease stock prices. This effect can be seen not only in high-frequency variables, but a...

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Publicado no:MAGKS - Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics (Band 41-2020)
Autor principal: Baumgärtner, Martin
Formato: Artigo
Idioma:inglês
Publicado em: Philipps-Universität Marburg 2020
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Acesso em linha:Texto integral em PDF
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Descrição
Resumo:This paper shows that uncertainty has an impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy shocks. As uncertainty increases, so does the risk that a restrictive forward guidance shock will increase rather than decrease stock prices. This effect can be seen not only in high-frequency variables, but also in VAR models with external instruments. The results suggest that uncertainty is an alternative approach to explain the phenomena previously known as "information shock" and should therefore receive more attention in monetary policy measures.
Descrição Física:38 Seiten
ISSN:1867-3678
DOI:10.17192/es2024.0668