Information or Uncertainty Shocks?

This paper shows that uncertainty has an impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy shocks. As uncertainty increases, so does the risk that a restrictive forward guidance shock will increase rather than decrease stock prices. This effect can be seen not only in high-frequency variables, but a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:MAGKS - Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics (Band 41-2020)
Main Author: Baumgärtner, Martin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Philipps-Universität Marburg 2020
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Online Access:PDF Full Text
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Summary:This paper shows that uncertainty has an impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy shocks. As uncertainty increases, so does the risk that a restrictive forward guidance shock will increase rather than decrease stock prices. This effect can be seen not only in high-frequency variables, but also in VAR models with external instruments. The results suggest that uncertainty is an alternative approach to explain the phenomena previously known as "information shock" and should therefore receive more attention in monetary policy measures.
Physical Description:38 Pages
ISSN:1867-3678
DOI:10.17192/es2024.0668