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The Fed’s perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts
This note uncovers the Phillips curve trade-off perceived by U.S. monetary policymakers. For that purpose we use data on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made available for the period 1992- 1998. The results point to sig...
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| Published in: | MAGKS - Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics (Band 46-2009) |
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| Main Author: | |
| Format: | Work |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Philipps-Universität Marburg
2009
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | PDF Full Text |
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| Summary: | This note uncovers the Phillips curve trade-off perceived by U.S. monetary policymakers. For that purpose we use data on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made available for the period 1992- 1998. The results point to significant changes in the perceived trade-off over time with the Phillips curve flattening and the implied NAIRU falling towards the second half of the sample. Hence, the results suggest that policymakers were aware of these changes in real-time. |
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| Physical Description: | 16 Pages |
| ISSN: | 1867-3678 |
| DOI: | 10.17192/es2024.0027 |