Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession

Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession

This paper proposes a new approach of forecasting \prospective" comparative advantages based on relative prices differences between countries in the context of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries that have already passed th...

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Veröffentlicht in:MAGKS - Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics (Band 14-2009)
Autoren: Savin, Ivan, Winker, Peter
Format: Arbeit
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Philipps-Universität Marburg 2009
Schlagworte:
competitive advantage
comparative advantage
Lafay index.
Balassa index
econ- omy in transition
Wirtschaft
Economics
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Zusammenfassung:This paper proposes a new approach of forecasting \prospective" comparative advantages based on relative prices differences between countries in the context of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries that have already passed the transition period from specialization mainly in natural resource- and labor-intensive goods to "high-tech" goods confirms a significant influence of our \prospective" advantages on comparative advantages dynamics. Using this method we identify a set of industries in Russia that seem to be most promising for formation of comparative advantages in the context of its economic liberalization and joining the WTO agreements. These industries include high and medium technological industries like machinery building, pharmaceutical products, railway transport, electronic and medical equipment.
ISSN:1867-3678
DOI:10.17192/es2023.0228

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