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Oil Price Shocks and Unemployment Rate: New Evidence from the MENA Region
We examine the effects of oil price shocks on unemployment rates in the MENA oil-exporting and oil-importing countries over the period 1991-2017. Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, the results show that in the short-run, the positive changes of oil prices only exert a...
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| Published in: | MAGKS - Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics (Band 31-2019) |
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| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | PDF Full Text |
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| Summary: | We examine the effects of oil price shocks on unemployment rates in the MENA oil-exporting and oil-importing countries over the period 1991-2017. Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, the results show that in the short-run, the positive changes of oil prices only exert a positive (increasing) impact on the unemployment rate for oil-exporting countries. However, in the long-run, positive changes in oil prices have a significant increasing effect on the unemployment rate for oil-exporting and oil-importing countries in the MENA region. We also find that the negative changes in oil prices do not show a significant effect on the unemployment rate. Our findings are in line with predictions of the Dutch disease hypothesis. |
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| Physical Description: | 20 Pages |
| ISSN: | 1867-3678 |
| DOI: | 10.17192/es2024.0626 |