Estimating and predicting the distribution of the number of visits to the medical doctor
In many countries the demand for health care services is of increasing importance. Especially in the industrialized world with a changing demographic structure social insurances and politics face real challenges. Reliable predictors of those demand functions will therefore become invaluable tool...
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| Published in: | MAGKS - Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics (Band 48-2011) |
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| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Work |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Philipps-Universität Marburg
2011
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | PDF Full Text |
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| Summary: | In many countries the demand for health care services is of increasing
importance. Especially in the industrialized world with a changing demographic
structure social insurances and politics face real challenges.
Reliable predictors of those demand functions will therefore become
invaluable tools. This article proposes a prediction method for the distribution
of the number of visits to the medical doctor for a determined
population, given a sample that is not necessarily taken from that population.
It uses the estimated conditional sample distribution, and it
can be applied for forecast scenarios. The methods are illustrated along
data from Sidney. The introduced methodology can be applied as well
to any other prediction problem of discrete distributions in real, future
or any fictitious population. It is therefore also an excellent tool for
future predictions, scenarios and policy evaluation. |
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| Physical Description: | 18 Pages |
| ISSN: | 1867-3678 |
| DOI: | 10.17192/es2024.0113 |