Canadian Interest Rate Setting: The Information Content of Canadian and U.S. Central Bank Communication

We explain Canadian target rate decisions using macroeconomic variables as well as Bank of Canada (BOC) and Federal Reserve (Fed) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to explain and predict 60 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We fi...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:MAGKS - Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics (Band 35-2009)
Main Authors: Hayo, Bernd, Neuenkirch, Matthias
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: 2009
Subjects:
Online Access:PDF Full Text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:We explain Canadian target rate decisions using macroeconomic variables as well as Bank of Canada (BOC) and Federal Reserve (Fed) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to explain and predict 60 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find that communications, and most especially speeches and testimony by Canadian Governing Council members, provide a significant and robust explanation of Canadian target rate decisions. However, prior to the introduction of fixed announcement dates, Canadian communications contained more information on upcoming policy moves. Finally, communications by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank—which are much more frequent—outperform our Canadian communication indicators in explaining Canadian interest rate decisions.
Physical Description:25 Pages
ISSN:1867-3678
DOI:10.17192/es2024.0016