| Titel: | Leading Standards and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Loan Survey Releases |
| Autor: | Hafemann, Lucas |
| Weitere Verfasser: | Tillmann, Peter |
| Veröffentlicht: | 2021 |
| URI: | https://archiv.ub.uni-marburg.de/es/2024/0704 |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17192/es2024.0704 |
| ISSN: | 1867-3678 |
| DDC: | 330 Wirtschaft |
| Publikationsdatum: | 2024-01-19 |
| Lizenz: | https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0 |
| Schlagwörter: |
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| shock identification, instrumental variable lo- cal projections, loan survey, risk-taking, credit supply |
Summary:
The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) is widely considered a good indicator of banks' lending conditions. We use the change in corporate bond spreads on SLOOS release days to instrument changes in lending standards. A series of estimated IV local projections shows that lending standards have highly significant effects on macroeconomic and financial variables. A relaxation of standards expands economic activity and eases _- financial conditions. We then use the change in spreads and the change in the VIX index on release days to identify a pure credit supply shock and a risk-taking shock using sign restrictions in a Bayesian VAR model. We find that an easing in lending has different consequences for both types of shocks. While the VIX, the excess bond premium and stock prices decrease after a pure credit supply shock, they increase after a risk-taking shock.
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