Dokument
| Titel: | Experimental Evidence on Forecaster (anti-) Herding in Sports Markets |
| Autor: | Bühren, Christoph |
| Weitere Verfasser: | Meyer, Tim; Pierdzioch, Christian |
| Veröffentlicht: | 2020 |
| URI: | https://archiv.ub.uni-marburg.de/es/2024/0664 |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17192/es2024.0664 |
| ISSN: | 1867-3678 |
| DDC: | 330 Wirtschaft |
| Publikationsdatum: | 2024-01-19 |
| Lizenz: | https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0 |
| Schlagwörter: |
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| Experiment, (Anti-)Herding, Sports forecasting, Survey data |
Summary:
We experimentally analyzed whether (anti-)herding behavior of forecasters in sport-betting markets is influenced by the incentive structure of the market (winner-takes-all vs. equal payment of most accurate forecasts) and by personal traits of forecasters. We found evidence of anti-herding in forecasts of the German Bundesliga. Self-reported knowledge and, more surprisingly, winner-takes-all incentives reduced anti-herding. On average, forecasts were less accurate with stronger anti-herding. Winner-takes-all incentives and self-reported knowledge improved forecasts.
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