Dokument

Summary:
In 2001 began a rise in the prices of food commodities not seen since the 1970s. Some observers attribute the increase in part to food commodity spec- ulation. This hypothesis is examined by disentangling the impact of specu- lation on grain prices from that of fundamental supply and demand forces. Even though results point to a generally stabilising in uence of speculation on prices, speculation is shown to have pushed prices further up during crisis years. The analysis is based on a structural vector autoregressive model identified by sign and zero restrictions. The model is estimated for global corn, wheat and rice markets.

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