Penalized likelihood based tests for regime switching in autoregressive models

Penalized likelihood based tests for regime switching in autoregressive models

In this thesis, we are mainly concerned with the basic methodological issue to test for regime switching in various Markov-switching autoregressive models. To this end, we develop some penalized likelihood based tests which neglect the dependence structure in the latent process. We derive the asympt...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Ketterer, Florian
Contributors: Holzmann, Hajo (Prof. Dr.) (Thesis advisor)
Format: Doctoral Thesis
Language:English
Published: Philipps-Universität Marburg 2011
Subjects:
Statistik
Hypothesis testing
likelihood ratio test
Zeitreihen
Likelihood-Quotienten-Test
time series
General statistics
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Summary:In this thesis, we are mainly concerned with the basic methodological issue to test for regime switching in various Markov-switching autoregressive models. To this end, we develop some penalized likelihood based tests which neglect the dependence structure in the latent process. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the corresponding test statistics under the hypothesis. Finally, we apply our methods to financial and macroeconomic time series.
DOI:10.17192/z2011.0120

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