Zum Umgang mit Handlungsmöglichkeiten des Managements bei der Bewertung von Projekten

Managers have to make decisions under uncertainty knowing that these decisions will determine the future. A lot of econometric models have been developed trying to support managers in decision making. At the moment much economic literature on investment describe a new model “the real option model” which can evaluate pro-jects taking into account managerial flexibility. The focus of this thesis is how to make decisions taking into account managerial flexibility. A simplified approach based on the real option model is developed and it is analyzed why (or why not) the real option model, the simplified approach, can be implemented and used in reality. The expectation is that there are several problems concerning the implementation and use of the approach in reality due to the fact that several assumptions will not be fulfilled in reality. Therefore the hypothesis is set that the simplified approach based on the real option model cannot be implemented or used in real decision making. In this thesis econometric models (Discounted cash flow and real option model) are presented and described in detail to show the various limitations in real evaluation processes. It is shown that uncertainty cannot be transferred in calculable risks and the decision has to be taken by the manager and is not taken by econometric models. Equally important is that there is a comparison of both evaluation models showing the pro and cons of the models in real decision making. After the comparison of the models a simplified approach based on the real option model is developed. The use of this approach seems to be unproblematic also for users with basic know-how of the option theory. In a case study the evaluation of a project using the simplified approach is shown. Furthermore most important circumstances are presented to guaranty a successful implementation (including detailed analysis of principal-agency-theory, know-how of user, corporate culture). In a last section of this thesis users of econometric models are asked why (or why not) the real option model, the simplified approach, can be implemented and used in reality. During the interviews the experts defined criteria to evaluate the possibility to implement and to use the simplified approach. Furthermore it is asked what are the advantages of this approach compared to the econometric models in use. The main hypothesis should be proved that the simplified approach based on the real option model cannot be implemented or used in real decision making. The non-functionality of the models in real decision making should be described.