Experimental Evidence on Forecaster (anti-) Herding in Sports Markets
We experimentally analyzed whether (anti-)herding behavior of forecasters in sport-betting markets is influenced by the incentive structure of the market (winner-takes-all vs. equal payment of most accurate forecasts) and by personal traits of forecasters. We found evidence of anti-herding in foreca...
Na minha lista:
Publicado no: | MAGKS - Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics (Band 38-2020) |
---|---|
Autoren: | , , |
Formato: | Artigo |
Idioma: | inglês |
Publicado em: |
Philipps-Universität Marburg
2020
|
Assuntos: | |
Acesso em linha: | Texto integral em PDF |
Tags: |
Adicionar Tag
Sem tags, seja o primeiro a adicionar uma tag!
|
Resumo: | We experimentally analyzed whether (anti-)herding behavior of forecasters in sport-betting markets is influenced by the incentive structure of the market (winner-takes-all vs. equal payment of most accurate forecasts) and by personal traits of forecasters. We found evidence of anti-herding in forecasts of the German Bundesliga. Self-reported knowledge and, more surprisingly, winner-takes-all incentives reduced anti-herding. On average, forecasts were less accurate with stronger anti-herding. Winner-takes-all incentives and self-reported knowledge improved forecasts. |
---|---|
Descrição Física: | 29 Seiten |
ISSN: | 1867-3678 |
DOI: | 10.17192/es2024.0664 |