Oil Price Shocks and Unemployment Rate: New Evidence from the MENA Region

Oil Price Shocks and Unemployment Rate: New Evidence from the MENA Region

We examine the effects of oil price shocks on unemployment rates in the MENA oil-exporting and oil-importing countries over the period 1991-2017. Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, the results show that in the short-run, the positive changes of oil prices only exert a...

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Publicado en:MAGKS - Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics (Band 31-2019)
Autoren: Cheratian, Iman, Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, Goltabar, Saleh
Formato: Artigo
Idioma:inglés
Publicado: Philipps-Universität Marburg 2019
Schlagworte:
Wirtschaft
MENA region
NARDL.
Unemployment rate
Oil price shocks
Economics
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Zusammenfassung:We examine the effects of oil price shocks on unemployment rates in the MENA oil-exporting and oil-importing countries over the period 1991-2017. Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, the results show that in the short-run, the positive changes of oil prices only exert a positive (increasing) impact on the unemployment rate for oil-exporting countries. However, in the long-run, positive changes in oil prices have a significant increasing effect on the unemployment rate for oil-exporting and oil-importing countries in the MENA region. We also find that the negative changes in oil prices do not show a significant effect on the unemployment rate. Our findings are in line with predictions of the Dutch disease hypothesis.
Descrición Física:20 Seiten
ISSN:1867-3678
DOI:10.17192/es2024.0626

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