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Do FOMC Members Herd?
Twice a year FOMC members submit forecasts for growth, unemplyoment and inflation to be published in the Humphrey-Hawkins Report to Congress. In this paper we use individual FOMC forecasts to assess whether these forecasts exhibit herding behavior, a pattern often found in private sector forecasts....
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| Publicat a: | MAGKS - Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics (Band 32-2010) |
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| Autors principals: | , |
| Format: | Arbeit |
| Idioma: | anglès |
| Publicat: |
Philipps-Universität Marburg
2023
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| Matèries: | |
| Accés en línia: | PDF a text complet |
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| Sumari: | Twice a year FOMC members submit forecasts for growth, unemplyoment and inflation to be published in the Humphrey-Hawkins Report to Congress. In this paper we use individual FOMC forecasts to assess whether these forecasts exhibit herding behavior, a pattern often found in private sector forecasts. While growth and unemployment forecast do not show herding behavior, the inflation forecasts show strong evidence of anti-herding, i.e. FOMC members intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus. Interestingly, anti-herding is more important for nonvoting members than for voters. |
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| Descripció física: | 10 Seiten |
| ISSN: | 1867-3678 |
| DOI: | 10.17192/es2024.0062 |