Publikationsserver
Decomposing Federal Funds Rate forecast uncertainty using real-time data
Using real-time data I estimate out-of-sample forecast uncertainty about the Federal Funds Rate. Combining a Taylor rule with a model of economic fundamentals I disentangle economically interpretable components of forecast uncertainty: uncertainty about future economic conditions and uncertainty abo...
Gespeichert in:
| 發表在: | MAGKS - Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics (Band 47-2009) |
|---|---|
| 主要作者: | |
| 格式: | Arbeit |
| 語言: | 英语 |
| 出版: |
Philipps-Universität Marburg
2009
|
| 主題: | |
| 在線閱讀: | PDF-Volltext |
| 標簽: |
添加標簽
沒有標簽, 成為第一個標記此記錄!
|
| 總結: | Using real-time data I estimate out-of-sample forecast uncertainty about the Federal Funds Rate. Combining a Taylor rule with a model of economic fundamentals I disentangle economically interpretable components of forecast uncertainty: uncertainty about future economic conditions and uncertainty about future monetary policy. Uncertainty about U.S. monetary policy fell to unprecedented low levels in the 1980s and remained low while uncertainty about future output and inflation declined only temporarily. This points to an important role of increased predictability of monetary policy in explaining the decline in macroeconomic volatility in the U.S. since the mid-1980s. |
|---|---|
| 實物描述: | 43 Seiten |
| ISSN: | 1867-3678 |
| DOI: | 10.17192/es2024.0028 |